Lessons for the US from India on TikTok’s Impending Ban
As TikTok faces an impending deadline to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, its future can be compared to India’s 2020 ban on the app. In India, the ban abruptly displaced 200 million active users in the country, which triggered a mass migration to other platforms and led to the reshaping of the digital content landscape – a scenario that may soon unfold in the US. TikTok’s strength lies in its recommendation algorithm, which delivers personalised content and keeps over 170 million users in the US engaged. This algorithm, coupled with the behavioural data it collects, has made TikTok a strategic asset in the global tech ecosystem. Sanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst & CEO of Greyhound Research, explained that banning TikTok centres on data ownership and privacy, driven by concerns over user data flowing to China. “If you look at the case in the US, Project Liberty, the consortium that wants to own the US assets of TikTok, will not get access to the algorithm, which continues to reside in China. So, despite the change in ownership, it will only be a half-win without proprietary access to the algorithm.” ByteDance has shown no indication of relinquishing control of the algorithm, even as the possibility of a forced sale or shutdown looms. What’s the Alternative? In the past, xAI founder and X owner Elon Musk has spoken against a ban. “In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the US, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform. Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for.” Notably, several buyers have come into the conversation about acquiring TikTok, including Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, Rapper Meek Mill, live-streaming app Kick and YouTuber MrBeast. Meanwhile, Mike Waltz, the soon-to-be national security adviser under US President-elect Donald Trump, recently told Fox News that they would work to facilitate a deal for the app. Notably, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will join other tech leaders at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago inauguration. However, according to The Information, a shutdown of its operations by Sunday appears to be the more likely outcome. TikTok has reportedly claimed it will send a message to its users indicating any change. Lessons from India’s Ban India’s experience offers key takeaways for the US and its content creators. After the TikTok ban, Indian creators had to rapidly adapt, often migrating their audiences to Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and regional apps like Moj, Josh, and Chingari. As per a detailed report, while local apps saw initial growth, they couldn’t match global platforms like Instagram and YouTube. Policy expert Nikhil Pahwa advised creators on LinkedIn to “develop plans for duplicating audiences across platforms” to mitigate the impact of platform-specific disruptions. However, the success of Indian alternatives was limited compared to global giants like Meta and Google, whose well-established ecosystems and global user bases gave them a competitive edge. “When it comes to comparing the Indian platforms not doing as well, the fact is both Google and Meta have an existing install base via ecosystem applications, and that is where they have an edge,” Gogia added. This dynamic is a reminder that innovation alone is not enough – scale, reach, and user trust play decisive roles. He explained this trend with the example of WhatsApp, which has gained global trust for its simplicity, security, and extensive reach. The preference for platforms that unify communication, news, and entertainment explains why Facebook and Instagram continue to dominate. Interestingly, in the US, Xiaohongshu (also known as Rednote) recently topped the App Store charts as a current Tiktok alternative. The influx of American users on the app, dubbed ‘TikTok refugees’, has sparked humorous interactions with Chinese users offering Mandarin lessons and support, even boosting activity on platforms like Duolingo. Research reveals its algorithm is strikingly similar to TikTok’s, offering insight into its rapid success. Designed primarily for Chinese users, Xiaohongshu lacks global features like translation and restricts foreign live-streaming. However, with the newfound traffic, Xiaohongshu is reportedly hiring translators. One listing stated that the position must be filled within three days, and candidates need not apply if they can’t start immediately, noting the urgency in replacing Tiktok and other incumbents in this space. In her book Extremely Online, journalist and content creator Taylor Lorenz noted that Musical.ly was sold to ByteDance in 2017 due to competition from Instagram. TikTok, its rebranded version, gained traction in the US through ByteDance’s billion-dollar marketing efforts. In the end, Tiktok’s appeal was because of its global audience & features. A Growing Creator Economy Regardless, it could be said that the creator economy will only grow.  “The Indian creator ecosystem has grown multifold in the last few years, primarily due to the efforts of global and Indian platforms and the money being spent to build it. There will be winners and losers in this battle. Ultimately, content creation as a category of professionals is now becoming a serious alternative that many are turning to,” Gogia added. Meta’s Instagram head Adam Mosseri is already doubling down on this. He announced on Monday that in 2025, the platform’s algorithm will prioritise original and creative content. This is done in tandem with attracting Tiktok’s user base. As the US faces its reckoning, the future of TikTok and the creator economy rests on how effectively stakeholders navigate this rapidly changing landscape. This is also an opportunity for the VC system to capitalise on startups in this space. “FWIW, it feels infeasible that Xiaohongshu is the TikTok replacement in the long-run. This could be an opportunity for a new US startup,” Justine Moore, partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), said.
Following the TikTok ban in India, 200 million users migrated their audiences to Reels, Shorts, and other regional apps.
Following the TikTok ban in India, 200 million users migrated their audiences to Reels, Shorts, and other regional apps.
["tiktok"]
["tiktok", "Go", "API", "AI", "R", "Git", "BERT", "Aim", "ViT", "Rust", "xAI"]
["AI", "xAI", "Aim", "R", "Go", "Rust", "Git", "API", "BERT", "ViT"]
I hold a degree in political science, and am interested in how AI and online culture intersect. I am at aditi.suresh@analyticsindiamag.com &amp; x.com/aditisuresh12