Impact of Generative AI in Indian IT Jobs
Software engineering roles are changing quicker than anyone imagined. All thanks to AI tools like Cursor and even Claude, software engineers are worried about losing their jobs more than ever. But contrary to what was believed earlier that AI will take over mundane jobs, it seems like it is coming for the creamy layer of jobs first. While at the same time, Indian IT jobs, the ones that involve maintenance, testing, and providing services, are still going to remain safe. But only for a few years. Indian IT giants such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, and others, which arguably are still testing the waters of generative AI could soon be on the brink of emergency when spending on their services would seem redundant as anyone within enterprises would be able to build front end, web, and other applications with the help of AI tools, with minimal amount of coding. The high end coding jobs that require building architecture and maintenance would remain intact, but when it comes to web development and designing of UI/UX, a single engineer with the help of AI in the future would be able to do it within hours. The examples of such things are already plenty with Cursor and Claude tools. Indian IT Giants Still have a Couple Years Before Water Hits their Doorsteps The job market is already seeing a decline. It is probably one of the most difficult years for tech jobs in a very long time. Same is the case with Indian IT. While all of the IT giants have reported growth, the numbers are only single digit. When it comes to revenue, TCS YoY growth was only 3.5%, while Infosys and HCL Tech had 1.3% and 7% respectively. The case was worse with Wipro and Tech Mahindra reporting negative growth. The case is concerning. Many of the Indian freshers are also giving up on applying for Indian IT jobs because of the less than minimum wage and high-end requirements for jobs. For example, Infosys has finally started offering letters to freshers they promised jobs in 2022. It is still interesting to see if anyone actually waited for 2.5 years to actually accept the offer. Meanwhile, last year analysts predicted that Indian IT will see a surge of deals and partnerships in 2024. Moreover, it was also predicted that much of the revenue of these IT giants would be through generative AI. Though the partnerships are underway, none of the IT giants have actually reported fairly about their revenue through generative AI, or if there was any. All of this is while the IT giants are manically upskilling their existing workforce with generative AI skills, which was earlier revealed, was barely about clicking ‘next’ on hundreds of slides of Powerpoint presentations, and calling themselves ‘GenAI trained workforce’. These acquired skills would be useless for the IT employees as the job market is getting pretty intense every passing day. When there was a ‘Python boom’ around 2015, everyone was getting a job by learning the coding language. Now, just knowing the language is not a selling point, employers and enterprises need more. As Allie K Miller said earlier, “we’d rather hire one software engineer who knows how to use AI than five who don’t, even if it’s the same cost.” This approach is definitely going to affect Indian IT more than anyone else. On the bright side, increase in M&A activity can help Indian IT acquire better talent and be a driving force for keeping them afloat. As all generative AI startups are in the end going to get acquired, it can be a good strategy for IT giants to take a bet on them and probably also pivot into becoming more product and less services companies. As for generative AI, it is going to go on with or without them. “IT changes so rapidly that you have to learn till the end of your career,” said a user on Reddit. With the advent of every new technology, be it Python, cloud, or AI, long-running Indian IT employees have to keep upgrading themselves to fit the need. A Huge Surge of Layoffs in Indian IT? Indian IT is not attractive for freshers and skilled techies anymore. The reluctance of recent graduates to pursue careers in Indian IT can be attributed to the prolonged stagnation of entry-level salaries, which have remained at INR 3.5-4 LPA for over a decade. Now with generative AI in the picture, we might witness hundreds of layoffs within the next 1-2 years because the services of Indian IT won’t be required by enterprises. Earlier, companies used to come to Indian IT for cost-cutting and probably off-shoring a lot of work. Soon, paying IT giants for the work that can be done internally with AI tools like Cursor, would seem like a futile waste of resources. Mrinal Rai, assistant director and principal analyst at ISG, told AIM that it is important for IT giants to buckle up and move fast. Speaking of Claude and Cursor, Rai said, “Many of these [GenAI] solutions fail to impress clients. Indian IT service providers have long standing relationships with enterprises and have experience in the specific nuances in a large or medium sized business requirement,” while adding that clients are still satisfied with the services provided by IT giants, but the satisfaction is not what is expected, and cost is the main inhibitor. “These providers are upskilling their workforce particularly in code development leveraging many of these AI tools by taking care of the required security and compliance guardrails. It is not about catching up but leveraging these solutions to make their own workforce more efficient and productive to deliver better solutions to their clients by taking care of their security, compliance and privacy concerns,” explained Rai. Moreover, even Indian IT seemed to be upskilling its employees to eventually replace them with generative AI. While the number of employees trained with generative AI in Indian IT touch more than 2.5 lakhs, the quality of the skills still seem questionable. This should definitely change and the IT giants should utilise more of their trained workforce. For enterprises, privacy, security, and compliance are the biggest issues when it comes to adoption of generative AI tools. While it may seem like Indian IT might provide a viable solution to them, the change is still not visible. Soon, enterprises would end up building using AI tools such as Cursor or upcoming ones by themselves, in a measure to cut costs. Playing the devil’s advocate, generative AI tools with a decreased workforce might help Indian IT stay afloat for a few years. But for how long, is definitely a question.
As for generative AI, it is going to go on with or without them.
AI tools like Cursor and Claude are going to take up all of the Indian IT jobs, the ones that involve maintenance and providing services.
["TCS"]
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["AI", "generative AI", "GenAI", "Aim", "RAG", "Python", "R", "Go", "Git", "API"]
Mohit writes about AI in simple, explainable, and often funny words. He's especially passionate about chatting with those building AI for Bharat, with the occasional detour into AGI.