Will Quantum Computing be a 5-Year Game or a Decades-Long Wait?
The narrative of real-time applications of quantum computing has been a topic of debate for a long time. While some believe that it will take just around five years for the industry to churn out useful computers, many others say that it’s going to be at least a two-decade-long process. According to recent projections, the quantum computing market is expected to reach $1 to 2 billion annually by 2030. This only highlights the growth potential of this industry. Last year, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) had declared 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology (IYQ), and considering the recent developments in just the past two months, this prediction may as well come true. A Five-Year Medley With Amazon’s release of Ocelot, its new quantum computing chip, the race for computing has become even more competitive. The company claimed that compared to current approaches, the chip can reduce the costs of implementing quantum error correction by up to 90%. When asked about his stand on Ocelot in the ongoing debate between two decades or five years of quantum, Andy Jassy, CEO at Amazon expressed in an intervew, “I’m hopeful that it’s more in the five-year range than it is in the 20-year range.” He further highlighted that many significant innovations, such as generative AI, appear to be “overnight successes” but are often the result of decades of foundational work. For instance, while generative AI seems like a recent breakthrough, it is an evolution of AI research spanning over 50 years. The technology became impactful when it became more accessible and functional. Jassy drew parallels with quantum computing, which has been in development for over a decade. He explained that such technologies often progress gradually before reaching a point where they solve previously intractable problems in a cost-effective manner. This sudden leap creates the illusion of overnight success. However, Jassy emphasised that the “euphoria” following these breakthroughs requires careful evaluation to determine their long-term impact and sustainability. In a recent statement, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said that quantum computing could become useful within three to five years. While acknowledging that unforeseen challenges might arise, Gates’ outlook suggests he believes that the foundational breakthroughs needed for practical quantum applications are already in place or rapidly approaching. Microsoft also recently announced Majorana 1, which it claims to be the world’s first quantum chip utilising topological qubits. The company earlier claimed the chip will enable quantum computers capable of solving “meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades”. Moreover, Hartmut Neven, founder and head of Google Quantum AI, has publicly stated that Google aims to release commercial quantum computing applications within five years. Last month, Neven expressed optimism about the timeline, and declared, “We’re optimistic that within five years we’ll see real-world applications that are possible only on quantum computers.” Jensen Huang Disagrees During an analyst event at CES, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang suggested that bringing “very useful quantum computers” to market could take decades, citing the need for quantum processors, or qubits, to increase by a factor of 1 million. “If you kind of said 15 years… that’d probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it”, he said. This single statement from Huang triggered a massive selloff in the quantum computing sector, erasing approximately $8 billion in market value, according to reports. The quantum computing companies’ stocks witnessed a sharp decline. For instance, IonQ shares fell over 31.65%, Rigetti Computing dropped by 37.25%, and D-Wave Quantum Systems saw its stock tumble down by 25.61% after Huang’s statement. Speaking in a recent podcast, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also expressed skepticism about the near-term potential of quantum computing. “I’m not an expert on quantum computing, my understanding is that it’s still quite off from being a very useful paradigm.” Moreover, Ivana Delevska, founder and chief investment officer at Spear Advisors, also concurred with the 15-20 year timeline, stating that it “seems very realistic”. However, countering his claim, Quantum leaders were quick to challenge and form an alternative narrative. Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave Quantum Systems, dismissed Huang’s comments on quantum computing while calling them “dead wrong”. Baratz pointed to clients like Mastercard and NTT Docomo, who already use their quantum systems for business operations. $NVDA $QBTSTODAY JENSEN HUANG SAID THAT QUANTUM COMPUTING WAS 20 YEARS AWAY FROM BEING USEFUL.DWave Quantum $QBTS was down as much as 49% after these comments and ended the day down 36%. The stock is up 1000% from the September lows. The CEO of DWave says in this clip… pic.twitter.com/2hGf9ZSS0R— amit (@amitisinvesting) January 8, 2025 He acknowledged that Huang’s timeline might apply to gate-based quantum computers but argued it was “100% off base” for annealing quantum computers. After Huang’s statement, J Keynes, a long-time investor in the quantum computing space, took to X to point out a big gap between the expectations of companies and academics regarding when quantum computing will take off. He believes it is time for the industry to show real results. Moreover, he added that long-term investors require validation through performance, not just market enthusiasm. According to him, just making progress in the lab or getting government contracts isn’t enough; there needs to be actual sales and practical uses that make money. 2 Months of Continuous Developments The past two months have underscored 2025 as a pivotal year in quantum computing, marked by significant breakthroughs, apart from Microsoft and AWS leading to increasing competition. While Google’s recent quantum chip, Willow, took over the internet after its release for suggesting the possibility of a ‘multiverse’, many critics questioned the tech giant’s bold claims. They said the tech giant’s claims were based on a flawed benchmark and that it has no real-world applications. The chip even sparked a visionary exchange between Google CEO Sundar Pichai and SpaceX’s Elon Musk. Beyond the notable advancements by these giants, other key players are making significant strides, further enriching the quantum landscape. PsiQuantum, an American quantum computing company, has unveiled its Omega quantum photonic chipset, designed for large-scale quantum computing applications. Manufactured in collaboration with GlobalFoundries, Omega integrates advanced photonic components capable of high-fidelity qubit operations and efficient chip-to-chip interconnects. The company plans to establish quantum compute centres in Brisbane, Australia, and Chicago, Illinois, by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, Rigetti Computing and Quanta Computer have entered a strategic partnership to accelerate the development and commercialisation of superconducting quantum computing technologies.
I’m hopeful that Ocelot is more in the five-year range than it is in the 20-year range, Amazon CEO said.
I’m hopeful that Ocelot is more in the five-year range than it is in the 20-year range, Amazon CEO said.
["quantum", "Quantum Computing", "quantum supremacy"]
["Quantum Computing", "Go", "quantum supremacy", "API", "AWS", "AI", "innovation", "quantum", "Aim", "generative AI", "CLIP", "AI research", "R"]
["AI", "generative AI", "Aim", "AWS", "R", "Go", "API", "CLIP", "innovation", "AI research"]
An information designer who loves to learn about and try new developments in the field of tech and AI. She likes to spend her spare time reading and exploring absurdism in literature.