India is Overestimating AI&#8217;s Impact on Job Displacement
AI will revolutionise the economy and bring about enormous changes, but the unemployment issue still exists. This is challenged by a recent statement made by Kunal Shah from CRED, who believes that India might have overstated the threat AI posed to jobs. “We are underestimating the second order impact of just a 10% productivity increase across a population with AI and overestimating AI’s impact on job displacement,” said Shah. The Second-Order Boom Shah contends that the loss of jobs shouldn’t be the only issue. He highlights how AI has the ability to significantly increase productivity. Imagine a 10% increase in productivity across the Indian workforce. might lead to a larger than 10% economic growth due to factors like increased innovation and new business creation. This increased productivity wouldn’t be confined to individual companies. It could lead to overall economic expansion, creating new jobs in entirely new sectors, just as the Industrial Revolution gave rise to new professions. This is similar to what AIM said earlier about there being jobs for ten times the developers. Contrary to popular belief, the tech job market is booming with a high demand for specific skills. All developers have to do is move beyond being “generic software engineers.” This is applicable for every field. With the help of AI, people will be able to do multiple jobs at once and even become overemployed. This isn’t uncommon as several employees already moonlight in addition to their regular day jobs. But in the future, it will constitute a major part of the economy. Augment at Best Sadly, most conversations focus on how AI is going to take over jobs, missing the broader potential for AI to enhance productivity and create new opportunities. As per a report by RIS, 83 per cent of the executives of large organisations surveyed said that AI has created new job roles and 67 percent of such new jobs were created at the level of manager or above. Even Meta chief scientist Yaan LeCun has said, “​​AI won’t take your job. But it will transform it and create new ones.” Linus Torvalds, the creator of the Linux operating system also supported the sentiment. In a recent interview, he said that it is premature to worry about the potential disappearance of jobs due to AI advancements. “We should wait and see what happens in the next 10 years before we start worrying about the imminent disappearance of jobs,” Torvalds stated. This largely supports what Shah is saying. Instead of fearing AI replacing us, we should view it as a tool that will transform our jobs. After all, the World Economic Forum predicted that AI would not only replace 85 million jobs by 2025, but also create 97 million jobs at the same time. AI Raises The Bar With Deep Skill AI has increased the overall standard or expectation for skills in various professions. While some tasks might become automated, others will evolve, and new ones will emerge. The key lies in adaptation and continuous learning. In an exclusive interview with AIM, Tech Mahindra’s former CEO C P Gurnani also said, “The industry is changing very fast. Do not assume that your degree is sufficient to keep you employed or successful. Stay up to date with the fundamentals and keep adapting to the changes.” According to a recent IBM survey, executives believe 40% of their workforce will need to reskill over the next three years due to AI and automation initiatives. “That translates to 1.4 billion of the 3.4 billion people in the global workforce, according to World Bank statistics,” the study’s authors stated. So, it’s no surprise that IBM’s AI chief, Matthew Candy, stated that people may no longer need a computer science degree to work in the tech field. Candy believes that in the age of AI, ‘soft talents’ such as creativity, problem-solving, and adaptability would be more valuable than the technical ones. Ultimately, AI presents an exciting opportunity for India. By fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptation, India can navigate the AI revolution and unlock its vast potential for economic growth, innovation, and job creation. The future belongs to those who are prepared to adapt and embrace the transformative power of AI.
AI has the ability to significantly increase productivity. It could lead to overall economic expansion, creating new jobs in entirely new sectors
AI has the ability to significantly increase productivity. It could lead to overall economic expansion, creating new jobs in entirely new sectors
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Anshul Vipat is a tech aficionado, enthusiastic about the latest innovations in the digital world. He also holds keen interest in traveling, exploring and cooking