Daily Papers

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

This is the third paper of the CayleyPy project applying artificial intelligence to problems in group theory. We announce the first public release of CayleyPy, an open source Python library for computations with Cayley and Schreier graphs. Compared with systems such as GAP and Sage, CayleyPy handles much larger graphs and performs several orders of magnitude faster. Using CayleyPy we obtained about 200 new conjectures on Cayley and Schreier graphs, focused on diameters and growth. For many Cayley graphs of symmetric groups Sn we observe quasi polynomial diameter formulas: a small set of quadratic or linear polynomials indexed by n mod s. We conjecture that this is a general phenomenon, giving efficient diameter computation despite the problem being NP hard. We propose a refinement of the Babai type conjecture on diameters of Sn: n^2/2 + 4n upper bounds in the undirected case, compared to previous O(n^2) bounds. We also provide explicit generator families, related to involutions in a square with whiskers pattern, conjectured to maximize the diameter; search confirms this for all n up to 15. We further conjecture an answer to a question posed by V M Glushkov in 1968 on directed Cayley graphs generated by a cyclic shift and a transposition. For nilpotent groups we conjecture an improvement of J S Ellenberg's results on upper unitriangular matrices over Z/pZ, showing linear dependence of diameter on p. Moreover. Some conjectures are LLM friendly, naturally stated as sorting problems verifiable by algorithms or Python code. To benchmark path finding we created more than 10 Kaggle datasets. CayleyPy works with arbitrary permutation or matrix groups and includes over 100 predefined generators. Our growth computation code outperforms GAP and Sage up to 1000 times in speed and size.

Large language models (LLMs) have advanced the automation of data science workflows. Yet it remains unclear whether they can critically leverage external domain knowledge as human data scientists do in practice. To answer this question, we introduce AssistedDS (Assisted Data Science), a benchmark designed to systematically evaluate how LLMs handle domain knowledge in tabular prediction tasks. AssistedDS features both synthetic datasets with explicitly known generative mechanisms and real-world Kaggle competitions, each accompanied by curated bundles of helpful and adversarial documents. These documents provide domain-specific insights into data cleaning, feature engineering, and model selection. We assess state-of-the-art LLMs on their ability to discern and apply beneficial versus harmful domain knowledge, evaluating submission validity, information recall, and predictive performance. Our results demonstrate three key findings: (1) LLMs frequently exhibit an uncritical adoption of provided information, significantly impairing their predictive performance when adversarial content is introduced, (2) helpful guidance is often insufficient to counteract the negative influence of adversarial information, and (3) in Kaggle datasets, LLMs often make errors in handling time-series data, applying consistent feature engineering across different folds, and interpreting categorical variables correctly. These findings highlight a substantial gap in current models' ability to critically evaluate and leverage expert knowledge, underscoring an essential research direction for developing more robust, knowledge-aware automated data science systems.

Accurate segmentation and classification of brain tumors from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) remain key challenges in medical image analysis, primarily due to the lack of high-quality, balanced, and diverse datasets with expert annotations. In this work, we address this gap by introducing BRISC, a dataset designed for brain tumor segmentation and classification tasks, featuring high-resolution segmentation masks. The dataset comprises 6,000 contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI scans, which were collated from multiple public datasets that lacked segmentation labels. Our primary contribution is the subsequent expert annotation of these images, performed by certified radiologists and physicians. It includes three major tumor types, namely glioma, meningioma, and pituitary, as well as non-tumorous cases. Each sample includes high-resolution labels and is categorized across axial, sagittal, and coronal imaging planes to facilitate robust model development and cross-view generalization. To demonstrate the utility of the dataset, we provide benchmark results for both tasks using standard deep learning models. The BRISC dataset is made publicly available. datasetlink: Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/briscdataset/brisc2025/), Figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30533120), Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17524350)

Babel Briefings is a novel dataset featuring 4.7 million news headlines from August 2020 to November 2021, across 30 languages and 54 locations worldwide with English translations of all articles included. Designed for natural language processing and media studies, it serves as a high-quality dataset for training or evaluating language models as well as offering a simple, accessible collection of articles, for example, to analyze global news coverage and cultural narratives. As a simple demonstration of the analyses facilitated by this dataset, we use a basic procedure using a TF-IDF weighted similarity metric to group articles into clusters about the same event. We then visualize the event signatures of the event showing articles of which languages appear over time, revealing intuitive features based on the proximity of the event and unexpectedness of the event. The dataset is available on https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/felixludos/babel-briefings{Kaggle} and https://huggingface.co/datasets/felixludos/babel-briefings{HuggingFace} with accompanying https://github.com/felixludos/babel-briefings{GitHub} code.

Research at the intersection of personality psychology, computer science, and linguistics has recently focused increasingly on modeling and predicting personality from language use. We report two major improvements in predicting personality traits from text data: (1) to our knowledge, the most comprehensive set of theory-based psycholinguistic features and (2) hybrid models that integrate a pre-trained Transformer Language Model BERT and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) networks trained on within-text distributions ('text contours') of psycholinguistic features. We experiment with BLSTM models (with and without Attention) and with two techniques for applying pre-trained language representations from the transformer model - 'feature-based' and 'fine-tuning'. We evaluate the performance of the models we built on two benchmark datasets that target the two dominant theoretical models of personality: the Big Five Essay dataset and the MBTI Kaggle dataset. Our results are encouraging as our models outperform existing work on the same datasets. More specifically, our models achieve improvement in classification accuracy by 2.9% on the Essay dataset and 8.28% on the Kaggle MBTI dataset. In addition, we perform ablation experiments to quantify the impact of different categories of psycholinguistic features in the respective personality prediction models.

We introduce MLE-bench, a benchmark for measuring how well AI agents perform at machine learning engineering. To this end, we curate 75 ML engineering-related competitions from Kaggle, creating a diverse set of challenging tasks that test real-world ML engineering skills such as training models, preparing datasets, and running experiments. We establish human baselines for each competition using Kaggle's publicly available leaderboards. We use open-source agent scaffolds to evaluate several frontier language models on our benchmark, finding that the best-performing setup--OpenAI's o1-preview with AIDE scaffolding--achieves at least the level of a Kaggle bronze medal in 16.9% of competitions. In addition to our main results, we investigate various forms of resource scaling for AI agents and the impact of contamination from pre-training. We open-source our benchmark code (github.com/openai/mle-bench/) to facilitate future research in understanding the ML engineering capabilities of AI agents.

A central aspect of machine learning research is experimentation, the process of designing and running experiments, analyzing the results, and iterating towards some positive outcome (e.g., improving accuracy). Could agents driven by powerful language models perform machine learning experimentation effectively? To answer this question, we introduce MLAgentBench, a suite of 13 tasks ranging from improving model performance on CIFAR-10 to recent research problems like BabyLM. For each task, an agent can perform actions like reading/writing files, executing code, and inspecting outputs. We then construct an agent that can perform ML experimentation based on ReAct framework. We benchmark agents based on Claude v1.0, Claude v2.1, Claude v3 Opus, GPT-4, GPT-4-turbo, Gemini-Pro, and Mixtral and find that a Claude v3 Opus agent is the best in terms of success rate. It can build compelling ML models over many tasks in MLAgentBench with 37.5% average success rate. Our agents also display highly interpretable plans and actions. However, the success rates vary considerably; they span from 100% on well-established older datasets to as low as 0% on recent Kaggle challenges created potentially after the underlying LM was trained. Finally, we identify several key challenges for LM-based agents such as long-term planning and reducing hallucination. Our code is released at https://github.com/snap-stanford/MLAgentBench.

Embedding representations power machine intelligence in many applications, including recommendation systems, but they are space intensive -- potentially occupying hundreds of gigabytes in large-scale settings. To help manage this outsized memory consumption, we explore mixed dimension embeddings, an embedding layer architecture in which a particular embedding vector's dimension scales with its query frequency. Through theoretical analysis and systematic experiments, we demonstrate that using mixed dimensions can drastically reduce the memory usage, while maintaining and even improving the ML performance. Empirically, we show that the proposed mixed dimension layers improve accuracy by 0.1% using half as many parameters or maintain it using 16X fewer parameters for click-through rate prediction task on the Criteo Kaggle dataset.

We introduce ADAHESSIAN, a second order stochastic optimization algorithm which dynamically incorporates the curvature of the loss function via ADAptive estimates of the HESSIAN. Second order algorithms are among the most powerful optimization algorithms with superior convergence properties as compared to first order methods such as SGD and Adam. The main disadvantage of traditional second order methods is their heavier per iteration computation and poor accuracy as compared to first order methods. To address these, we incorporate several novel approaches in ADAHESSIAN, including: (i) a fast Hutchinson based method to approximate the curvature matrix with low computational overhead; (ii) a root-mean-square exponential moving average to smooth out variations of the Hessian diagonal across different iterations; and (iii) a block diagonal averaging to reduce the variance of Hessian diagonal elements. We show that ADAHESSIAN achieves new state-of-the-art results by a large margin as compared to other adaptive optimization methods, including variants of Adam. In particular, we perform extensive tests on CV, NLP, and recommendation system tasks and find that ADAHESSIAN: (i) achieves 1.80%/1.45% higher accuracy on ResNets20/32 on Cifar10, and 5.55% higher accuracy on ImageNet as compared to Adam; (ii) outperforms AdamW for transformers by 0.13/0.33 BLEU score on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 2.7/1.0 PPL on PTB/Wikitext-103; (iii) outperforms AdamW for SqueezeBert by 0.41 points on GLUE; and (iv) achieves 0.032% better score than Adagrad for DLRM on the Criteo Ad Kaggle dataset. Importantly, we show that the cost per iteration of ADAHESSIAN is comparable to first order methods, and that it exhibits robustness towards its hyperparameters.