Daily Papers

The 2024 US presidential election is the first major contest to occur in the US since the popularization of large language models (LLMs). Building on lessons from earlier shifts in media (most notably social media's well studied role in targeted messaging and political polarization) this moment raises urgent questions about how LLMs may shape the information ecosystem and influence political discourse. While platforms have announced some election safeguards, how well they work in practice remains unclear. Against this backdrop, we conduct a large-scale, longitudinal study of 12 models, queried using a structured survey with over 12,000 questions on a near-daily cadence from July through November 2024. Our design systematically varies content and format, resulting in a rich dataset that enables analyses of the models' behavior over time (e.g., across model updates), sensitivity to steering, responsiveness to instructions, and election-related knowledge and "beliefs." In the latter half of our work, we perform four analyses of the dataset that (i) study the longitudinal variation of model behavior during election season, (ii) illustrate the sensitivity of election-related responses to demographic steering, (iii) interrogate the models' beliefs about candidates' attributes, and (iv) reveal the models' implicit predictions of the election outcome. To facilitate future evaluations of LLMs in electoral contexts, we detail our methodology, from question generation to the querying pipeline and third-party tooling. We also publicly release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/sarahcen/llm-election-data-2024

Empirical research and public knowledge on Malaysia's elections have long been constrained by a lack of high-quality open data, particularly in the absence of a Freedom of Information framework. We introduce the Malaysian Election Corpus (MECo; ElectionData.MY), an open-access panel database covering all federal and state general elections from 1955 to the present, as well as by-elections from 2008 onward. MECo includes candidate- and constituency-level results for nearly 10,000 contests across seven decades, standardised with unique identifiers for candidates, parties, and constituencies. The database also provides summary statistics on electorate size, voter turnout, rejected votes, and unreturned ballots. This is the most well-curated publicly available data on Malaysian elections, and will unlock new opportunities for research, data journalism, and civic engagement.

In this paper, we introduce the first release of a large-scale dataset capturing discourse on X (a.k.a., Twitter) related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Our dataset comprises 22 million publicly available posts on X.com, collected from May 1, 2024, to July 31, 2024, using a custom-built scraper, which we describe in detail. By employing targeted keywords linked to key political figures, events, and emerging issues, we aligned data collection with the election cycle to capture evolving public sentiment and the dynamics of political engagement on social media. This dataset offers researchers a robust foundation to investigate critical questions about the influence of social media in shaping political discourse, the propagation of election-related narratives, and the spread of misinformation. We also present a preliminary analysis that highlights prominent hashtags and keywords within the dataset, offering initial insights into the dominant themes and conversations occurring in the lead-up to the election. Our dataset is available at: url{https://github.com/sinking8/usc-x-24-us-election

Instruction-finetuned Large Language Models exhibit unprecedented Natural Language Understanding capabilities. Recent work has been exploring political biases and political reasoning capabilities in LLMs, mainly scoped in the US context. In light of the recent 2024 European Parliament elections, we are investigating if LLMs can be used as Voting Advice Applications (VAAs). We audit MISTRAL and MIXTRAL models and evaluate their accuracy in predicting the stance of political parties based on the latest "EU and I" voting assistance questionnaire. Furthermore, we explore alternatives to improve models' performance by augmenting the input context via Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) relying on web search, and Self-Reflection using staged conversations that aim to re-collect relevant content from the model's internal memory. We find that MIXTRAL is highly accurate with an 82% accuracy on average. Augmenting the input context with expert-curated information can lead to a significant boost of approx. 9%, which remains an open challenge for automated approaches.

We first adopt a human-guided machine learning framework to develop a new dataset for hyperpartisan news title detection with 2,200 manually labeled and 1.8 million machine-labeled titles that were posted from 2014 to the present by nine representative media organizations across three media bias groups - Left, Central, and Right in an active learning manner. The fine-tuned transformer-based language model achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84 and an F1 score of 0.78 on an external validation set. Next, we conduct a computational analysis to quantify the extent and dynamics of partisanship in news titles. While some aspects are as expected, our study reveals new or nuanced differences between the three media groups. We find that overall the Right media tends to use proportionally more hyperpartisan titles. Roughly around the 2016 Presidential Election, the proportions of hyperpartisan titles increased in all media bias groups where the relative increase in the proportion of hyperpartisan titles of the Left media was the most. We identify three major topics including foreign issues, political systems, and societal issues that are suggestive of hyperpartisanship in news titles using logistic regression models and the Shapley values. Through an analysis of the topic distribution, we find that societal issues gradually receive more attention from all media groups. We further apply a lexicon-based language analysis tool to the titles of each topic and quantify the linguistic distance between any pairs of the three media groups. Three distinct patterns are discovered. The Left media is linguistically more different from Central and Right in terms of foreign issues. The linguistic distance between the three media groups becomes smaller over recent years. In addition, a seasonal pattern where linguistic difference is associated with elections is observed for societal issues.

Advances in large language models have raised concerns about their potential use in generating compelling election disinformation at scale. This study presents a two-part investigation into the capabilities of LLMs to automate stages of an election disinformation operation. First, we introduce DisElect, a novel evaluation dataset designed to measure LLM compliance with instructions to generate content for an election disinformation operation in localised UK context, containing 2,200 malicious prompts and 50 benign prompts. Using DisElect, we test 13 LLMs and find that most models broadly comply with these requests; we also find that the few models which refuse malicious prompts also refuse benign election-related prompts, and are more likely to refuse to generate content from a right-wing perspective. Secondly, we conduct a series of experiments (N=2,340) to assess the "humanness" of LLMs: the extent to which disinformation operation content generated by an LLM is able to pass as human-written. Our experiments suggest that almost all LLMs tested released since 2022 produce election disinformation operation content indiscernible by human evaluators over 50% of the time. Notably, we observe that multiple models achieve above-human levels of humanness. Taken together, these findings suggest that current LLMs can be used to generate high-quality content for election disinformation operations, even in hyperlocalised scenarios, at far lower costs than traditional methods, and offer researchers and policymakers an empirical benchmark for the measurement and evaluation of these capabilities in current and future models.

The massive population election simulation aims to model the preferences of specific groups in particular election scenarios. It has garnered significant attention for its potential to forecast real-world social trends. Traditional agent-based modeling (ABM) methods are constrained by their ability to incorporate complex individual background information and provide interactive prediction results. In this paper, we introduce ElectionSim, an innovative election simulation framework based on large language models, designed to support accurate voter simulations and customized distributions, together with an interactive platform to dialogue with simulated voters. We present a million-level voter pool sampled from social media platforms to support accurate individual simulation. We also introduce PPE, a poll-based presidential election benchmark to assess the performance of our framework under the U.S. presidential election scenario. Through extensive experiments and analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our framework in U.S. presidential election simulations.

This work introduces a dataset focused on fake news in US political speeches, specifically examining racial slurs and biases. By scraping and annotating 40,000 news articles, using advanced NLP tools and human verification, we provide a nuanced understanding of misinformation in political discourse. The dataset, designed for machine learning and bias analysis, is a critical resource for researchers, policymakers, and educators. It facilitates the development of strategies against misinformation and enhances media literacy, marking a significant contribution to the study of fake news and political communication. Our dataset, focusing on the analysis of fake news in the context of the 2024 elections, is publicly accessible for community to work on fake news identification. Our dataset, focusing on the analysis of fake news in the context of the 2024 elections, is publicly accessible.

Instruction-finetuned Large Language Models inherit clear political leanings that have been shown to influence downstream task performance. We expand this line of research beyond the two-party system in the US and audit Llama Chat in the context of EU politics in various settings to analyze the model's political knowledge and its ability to reason in context. We adapt, i.e., further fine-tune, Llama Chat on speeches of individual euro-parties from debates in the European Parliament to reevaluate its political leaning based on the EUandI questionnaire. Llama Chat shows considerable knowledge of national parties' positions and is capable of reasoning in context. The adapted, party-specific, models are substantially re-aligned towards respective positions which we see as a starting point for using chat-based LLMs as data-driven conversational engines to assist research in political science.

Accessing and understanding contemporary and historical events of global impact such as the US elections and the Olympic Games is a major prerequisite for cross-lingual event analytics that investigate event causes, perception and consequences across country borders. In this paper, we present the Open Event Knowledge Graph (OEKG), a multilingual, event-centric, temporal knowledge graph composed of seven different data sets from multiple application domains, including question answering, entity recommendation and named entity recognition. These data sets are all integrated through an easy-to-use and robust pipeline and by linking to the event-centric knowledge graph EventKG. We describe their common schema and demonstrate the use of the OEKG at the example of three use cases: type-specific image retrieval, hybrid question answering over knowledge graphs and news articles, as well as language-specific event recommendation. The OEKG and its query endpoint are publicly available.

Recently, knowledge-grounded conversations in the open domain gain great attention from researchers. Existing works on retrieval-based dialogue systems have paid tremendous efforts to utilize neural networks to build a matching model, where all of the context and knowledge contents are used to match the response candidate with various representation methods. Actually, different parts of the context and knowledge are differentially important for recognizing the proper response candidate, as many utterances are useless due to the topic shift. Those excessive useless information in the context and knowledge can influence the matching process and leads to inferior performance. To address this problem, we propose a multi-turn Response Selection Model that can Detect the relevant parts of the Context and Knowledge collection (RSM-DCK). Our model first uses the recent context as a query to pre-select relevant parts of the context and knowledge collection at the word-level and utterance-level semantics. Further, the response candidate interacts with the selected context and knowledge collection respectively. In the end, The fused representation of the context and response candidate is utilized to post-select the relevant parts of the knowledge collection more confidently for matching. We test our proposed model on two benchmark datasets. Evaluation results indicate that our model achieves better performance than the existing methods, and can effectively detect the relevant context and knowledge for response selection.

Election speeches play an integral role in communicating the vision and mission of the candidates. From lofty promises to mud-slinging, the electoral candidate accounts for all. However, there remains an open question about what exactly wins over the voters. In this work, we used state-of-the-art natural language processing methods to study the speeches and sentiments of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, fighting for the 2020 US Presidential election. Comparing the racial dichotomy of the United States, we analyze what led to the victory and defeat of the different candidates. We believe this work will inform the election campaigning strategy and provide a basis for communicating to diverse crowds.

We present a method based on natural language processing (NLP), for studying the influence of interest groups (lobbies) in the law-making process in the European Parliament (EP). We collect and analyze novel datasets of lobbies' position papers and speeches made by members of the EP (MEPs). By comparing these texts on the basis of semantic similarity and entailment, we are able to discover interpretable links between MEPs and lobbies. In the absence of a ground-truth dataset of such links, we perform an indirect validation by comparing the discovered links with a dataset, which we curate, of retweet links between MEPs and lobbies, and with the publicly disclosed meetings of MEPs. Our best method achieves an AUC score of 0.77 and performs significantly better than several baselines. Moreover, an aggregate analysis of the discovered links, between groups of related lobbies and political groups of MEPs, correspond to the expectations from the ideology of the groups (e.g., center-left groups are associated with social causes). We believe that this work, which encompasses the methodology, datasets, and results, is a step towards enhancing the transparency of the intricate decision-making processes within democratic institutions.

This work presents a framework for assessing whether large language models (LLMs) encode more factual knowledge in their parameters than what they express in their outputs. While a few studies hint at this possibility, none has clearly defined or demonstrated this phenomenon. We first propose a formal definition of knowledge, quantifying it for a given question as the fraction of correct-incorrect answer pairs where the correct one is ranked higher. This gives rise to external and internal knowledge, depending on the information used to score individual answer candidates: either the model's observable token-level probabilities or its intermediate computations. Hidden knowledge arises when internal knowledge exceeds external knowledge. We then present a case study, applying this framework to three popular open-weights LLMs in a closed-book QA setup. Our results indicate that: (1) LLMs consistently encode more factual knowledge internally than what they express externally, with an average gap of 40%. (2) Surprisingly, some knowledge is so deeply hidden that a model can internally know an answer perfectly, yet fail to generate it even once, despite large-scale repeated sampling of 1,000 answers. This reveals fundamental limitations in the generation capabilities of LLMs, which (3) puts a practical constraint on scaling test-time compute via repeated answer sampling in closed-book QA: significant performance improvements remain inaccessible because some answers are practically never sampled, yet if they were, we would be guaranteed to rank them first.

Efforts by foreign actors to influence public opinion have gained considerable attention because of their potential to impact democratic elections. Thus, the ability to identify and counter sources of disinformation is increasingly becoming a top priority for government entities in order to protect the integrity of democratic processes. This study presents a method of identifying Russian disinformation bots on Twitter using centering resonance analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore community detection. The data reflect a significant degree of discursive dissimilarity between known Russian disinformation bots and a control set of Twitter users during the timeframe of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The data also demonstrate statistically significant classification capabilities (MCC = 0.9070) based on community clustering. The prediction algorithm is very effective at identifying true positives (bots), but is not able to resolve true negatives (non-bots) because of the lack of discursive similarity between control users. This leads to a highly sensitive means of identifying propagators of disinformation with a high degree of discursive similarity on Twitter, with implications for limiting the spread of disinformation that could impact democratic processes.

The complexity and diversity of today's media landscape provides many challenges for researchers studying news producers. These producers use many different strategies to get their message believed by readers through the writing styles they employ, by repetition across different media sources with or without attribution, as well as other mechanisms that are yet to be studied deeply. To better facilitate systematic studies in this area, we present a large political news data set, containing over 136K news articles, from 92 news sources, collected over 7 months of 2017. These news sources are carefully chosen to include well-established and mainstream sources, maliciously fake sources, satire sources, and hyper-partisan political blogs. In addition to each article we compute 130 content-based and social media engagement features drawn from a wide range of literature on political bias, persuasion, and misinformation. With the release of the data set, we also provide the source code for feature computation. In this paper, we discuss the first release of the data set and demonstrate 4 use cases of the data and features: news characterization, engagement characterization, news attribution and content copying, and discovering news narratives.

As political attitudes have diverged ideologically in the United States, political speech has diverged lingusitically. The ever-widening polarization between the US political parties is accelerated by an erosion of mutual understanding between them. We aim to make these communities more comprehensible to each other with a framework that probes community-specific responses to the same survey questions using community language models CommunityLM. In our framework we identify committed partisan members for each community on Twitter and fine-tune LMs on the tweets authored by them. We then assess the worldviews of the two groups using prompt-based probing of their corresponding LMs, with prompts that elicit opinions about public figures and groups surveyed by the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2020 Exploratory Testing Survey. We compare the responses generated by the LMs to the ANES survey results, and find a level of alignment that greatly exceeds several baseline methods. Our work aims to show that we can use community LMs to query the worldview of any group of people given a sufficiently large sample of their social media discussions or media diet.

Procedural text describes dynamic state changes during a step-by-step natural process (e.g., photosynthesis). In this work, we focus on the task of procedural text understanding, which aims to comprehend such documents and track entities' states and locations during a process. Although recent approaches have achieved substantial progress, their results are far behind human performance. Two challenges, the difficulty of commonsense reasoning and data insufficiency, still remain unsolved, which require the incorporation of external knowledge bases. Previous works on external knowledge injection usually rely on noisy web mining tools and heuristic rules with limited applicable scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel KnOwledge-Aware proceduraL text understAnding (KOALA) model, which effectively leverages multiple forms of external knowledge in this task. Specifically, we retrieve informative knowledge triples from ConceptNet and perform knowledge-aware reasoning while tracking the entities. Besides, we employ a multi-stage training schema which fine-tunes the BERT model over unlabeled data collected from Wikipedia before further fine-tuning it on the final model. Experimental results on two procedural text datasets, ProPara and Recipes, verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods, in which our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in comparison to various baselines.

We propose an approach for estimating the latent knowledge embedded inside large language models (LLMs). We leverage the in-context learning (ICL) abilities of LLMs to estimate the extent to which an LLM knows the facts stored in a knowledge base. Our knowledge estimator avoids reliability concerns with previous prompting-based methods, is both conceptually simpler and easier to apply, and we demonstrate that it can surface more of the latent knowledge embedded in LLMs. We also investigate how different design choices affect the performance of ICL-based knowledge estimation. Using the proposed estimator, we perform a large-scale evaluation of the factual knowledge of a variety of open source LLMs, like OPT, Pythia, Llama(2), Mistral, Gemma, etc. over a large set of relations and facts from the Wikidata knowledge base. We observe differences in the factual knowledge between different model families and models of different sizes, that some relations are consistently better known than others but that models differ in the precise facts they know, and differences in the knowledge of base models and their finetuned counterparts.

Conversational artificial intelligence (AI) disrupts how humans interact with technology. Recently, OpenAI introduced ChatGPT, a state-of-the-art dialogue model that can converse with its human counterparts with unprecedented capabilities. ChatGPT has witnessed tremendous attention from the media, academia, industry, and the general public, attracting more than a million users within days of its release. However, its explosive adoption for information search and as an automated decision aid underscores the importance to understand its limitations and biases. This paper focuses on one of democratic society's most important decision-making processes: political elections. Prompting ChatGPT with 630 political statements from two leading voting advice applications and the nation-agnostic political compass test in three pre-registered experiments, we uncover ChatGPT's pro-environmental, left-libertarian ideology. For example, ChatGPT would impose taxes on flights, restrict rent increases, and legalize abortion. In the 2021 elections, it would have voted most likely for the Greens both in Germany (B\"undnis 90/Die Gr\"unen) and in the Netherlands (GroenLinks). Our findings are robust when negating the prompts, reversing the order of the statements, varying prompt formality, and across languages (English, German, Dutch, and Spanish). We conclude by discussing the implications of politically biased conversational AI on society.

In a multi-turn knowledge-grounded dialog, the difference between the knowledge selected at different turns usually provides potential clues to knowledge selection, which has been largely neglected in previous research. In this paper, we propose a difference-aware knowledge selection method. It first computes the difference between the candidate knowledge sentences provided at the current turn and those chosen in the previous turns. Then, the differential information is fused with or disentangled from the contextual information to facilitate final knowledge selection. Automatic, human observational, and interactive evaluation shows that our method is able to select knowledge more accurately and generate more informative responses, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines. The codes are available at https://github.com/chujiezheng/DiffKS.

Does the People's Republic of China (PRC) interfere with European elections through ethnic Chinese diaspora media? This question forms the basis of an ongoing research project exploring how PRC narratives about European elections are represented in Chinese diaspora media, and thus the objectives of PRC news media manipulation. In order to study diaspora media efficiently and at scale, it is necessary to use techniques derived from quantitative text analysis, such as topic modelling. In this paper, we present a pipeline for studying information dynamics in Chinese media. Firstly, we present KeyNMF, a new approach to static and dynamic topic modelling using transformer-based contextual embedding models. We provide benchmark evaluations to demonstrate that our approach is competitive on a number of Chinese datasets and metrics. Secondly, we integrate KeyNMF with existing methods for describing information dynamics in complex systems. We apply this pipeline to data from five news sites, focusing on the period of time leading up to the 2024 European parliamentary elections. Our methods and results demonstrate the effectiveness of KeyNMF for studying information dynamics in Chinese media and lay groundwork for further work addressing the broader research questions.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved unprecedented performance by leveraging vast pretraining corpora, yet their performance remains suboptimal in knowledge-intensive domains such as medicine and scientific research, where high factual precision is required. While synthetic data provides a promising avenue for augmenting domain knowledge, existing methods frequently generate redundant samples that do not align with the model's true knowledge gaps. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel Structural Entropy-guided Knowledge Navigator (SENATOR) framework that addresses the intrinsic knowledge deficiencies of LLMs. Our approach employs the Structure Entropy (SE) metric to quantify uncertainty along knowledge graph paths and leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to selectively explore regions where the model lacks domain-specific knowledge. Guided by these insights, the framework generates targeted synthetic data for supervised fine-tuning, enabling continuous self-improvement. Experimental results on LLaMA-3 and Qwen2 across multiple domain-specific benchmarks show that SENATOR effectively detects and repairs knowledge deficiencies, achieving notable performance improvements. The code and data for our methods and experiments are available at https://github.com/weiyifan1023/senator.

Elon Musk released Grokipedia on 27 October 2025 to provide an alternative to Wikipedia, the crowdsourced online encyclopedia. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of Grokipedia and compare it to a dump of Wikipedia, with a focus on article similarity and citation practices. Although Grokipedia articles are much longer than their corresponding English Wikipedia articles, we find that much of Grokipedia's content (including both articles with and without Creative Commons licenses) is highly derivative of Wikipedia. Nevertheless, citation practices between the sites differ greatly, with Grokipedia citing many more sources deemed "generally unreliable" or "blacklisted" by the English Wikipedia community and low quality by external scholars, including dozens of citations to sites like Stormfront and Infowars. We then analyze article subsets: one about elected officials, one about controversial topics, and one random subset for which we derive article quality and topic. We find that the elected official and controversial article subsets showed less similarity between their Wikipedia version and Grokipedia version than other pages. The random subset illustrates that Grokipedia focused rewriting the highest quality articles on Wikipedia, with a bias towards biographies, politics, society, and history. Finally, we publicly release our nearly-full scrape of Grokipedia, as well as embeddings of the entire Grokipedia corpus.

Characterizing a large language model's (LLM's) knowledge of a given question is challenging. As a result, prior work has primarily examined LLM behavior under knowledge conflicts, where the model's internal parametric memory contradicts information in the external context. However, this does not fully reflect how well the model knows the answer to the question. In this paper, we first introduce a taxonomy of five knowledge statuses based on the consistency and correctness of LLM knowledge modes. We then propose KScope, a hierarchical framework of statistical tests that progressively refines hypotheses about knowledge modes and characterizes LLM knowledge into one of these five statuses. We apply KScope to nine LLMs across four datasets and systematically establish: (1) Supporting context narrows knowledge gaps across models. (2) Context features related to difficulty, relevance, and familiarity drive successful knowledge updates. (3) LLMs exhibit similar feature preferences when partially correct or conflicted, but diverge sharply when consistently wrong. (4) Context summarization constrained by our feature analysis, together with enhanced credibility, further improves update effectiveness and generalizes across LLMs.

This article proposes a new approach for assessing the quality of answers in political question-and-answer sessions. We measure the quality of an answer based on how easily and accurately it can be recognized in a random set of candidate answers given the question's text. This measure reflects the answer's relevance and depth of engagement with the question. Like semantic search, we can implement this approach by training a language model on the corpus of observed questions and answers without additional human-labeled data. We showcase and validate our methodology within the context of the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons. Our analysis reveals that while some answers have a weak semantic connection to questions, hinting at some evasion or obfuscation, they are generally at least moderately relevant, far exceeding what we would expect from random replies. We also find a meaningful correlation between answer quality and the party affiliation of the members of Parliament asking the questions.

In democratic societies, electoral systems play a crucial role in translating public preferences into political representation. Among these, the D'Hondt method is widely used to ensure proportional representation, balancing fair representation with governmental stability. Recently, there has been a growing interest in applying similar principles of proportional representation to enhance interpretability in machine learning, specifically in Explainable AI (XAI). This study investigates the integration of D'Hondt-based voting principles in the DhondtXAI method, which leverages resource allocation concepts to interpret feature importance within AI models. Through a comparison of SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) and DhondtXAI, we evaluate their effectiveness in feature attribution within CatBoost and XGBoost models for breast cancer and diabetes prediction, respectively. The DhondtXAI approach allows for alliance formation and thresholding to enhance interpretability, representing feature importance as seats in a parliamentary view. Statistical correlation analyses between SHAP values and DhondtXAI allocations support the consistency of interpretations, demonstrating DhondtXAI's potential as a complementary tool for understanding feature importance in AI models. The results highlight that integrating electoral principles, such as proportional representation and alliances, into AI explainability can improve user understanding, especially in high-stakes fields like healthcare.

This paper presents a novel dataset of public broadcast interviews featuring high-ranking German politicians. The interviews were sourced from YouTube, transcribed, processed for speaker identification, and stored in a tidy and open format. The dataset comprises 99 interviews with 33 different German politicians across five major interview formats, containing a total of 28,146 sentences. As the first of its kind, this dataset offers valuable opportunities for research on various aspects of political communication in the (German) political contexts, such as agenda-setting, interviewer dynamics, or politicians' self-presentation.